What geopolitical analyst Nikola Mikovic revealed on my show may surprise you.
Like many Americans, I once believed the Russia–Ukraine war began in 2022. That’s the story you hear on cable news. The invasion. The tanks. The sudden crisis.
According to Nikola Mikovic, my guest on The Daniel Stih Podcast, that narrative is incomplete.
“The war didn’t begin in 2022,” Nikola told me. “It began in 2014, in the Donbas.”
Once you understand what happened a decade ago—how the conflict started, why it froze, and re-erupted in 2022—the current war suddenly makes more sense… and looks harder to end.
What follows is a breakdown of our conversation, organized so readers can finally see the war not as a two-year story, but as a ten-year geopolitical struggle shaped by oligarchs, energy, regional rebellions, military opportunism, and global strategic interests that go far beyond Ukraine’s borders.
How the War Really Began (2013–2014)
Although fighting erupted in the Donbas in 2014, the fuse was lit in late 2013, when then-president Viktor Yanukovych—an opportunistic Ukrainian leader balancing between Russia and the European Union—abruptly refused to sign an EU economic agreement.
Most Ukrainians wanted closer ties with Europe.
Yanukovych instead turned toward Russia.
Massive protests known as Euromaidan followed. The government collapsed. Yanukovych fled. In the chaos, Russia quickly exploited the power vacuum. According to Nikola:
- Russian-backed oligarchs in Eastern Ukraine (many rooted in the resource-rich Donbas) pressured for closer ties with Moscow.
- Other oligarchs wanted integration with the European economy.
- Ukraine was essentially a battleground between competing oligarchic factions.
This internal fight opened the door for Russia to intervene.
In 2014, armed rebels, supported loosely but not fully by the Kremlin, seized several cities. Russia annexed Crimea. Western media framed it as sudden aggression. It was part of a deeper strategic pattern:
“Russia launched a war in Eastern Ukraine in 2014—but didn’t let its proxies fully capture the region.” Instead, Moscow forced its own rebel forces to sign the Minsk I and II Agreements, freezing the conflict.
Why?
Because Russia had other ambitions.
Why Russia Froze the Conflict
While Donbas burned, Russia had its eyes on a different war: Syria.
By 2015, Putin redeployed focus and resources to prop up dictator Bashar al-Assad. Russia’s strategy was never to end the Syrian war—only to keep Assad from losing. This allowed Moscow to:
- maintain military bases in the Middle East,
- assert itself as a global power,
- counter Western influence, and
- field-test weapons systems.
Russia viewed conflicts like pieces on a chessboard:
- Never finish the game.
- Always maintain leverage.
- Freeze conflicts, thaw them later if needed.
Moldova. Georgia. Syria. And eventually Ukraine. Again.
Why Putin Waited Eight Years Before Invading (2014–2022)
Russia could have seized southeastern Ukraine in 2014. It didn’t. Instead, it waited eight years while:
- Ukraine rebuilt its military with NATO assistance.
- Both sides prepared for a larger confrontation.
- Russia consolidated its influence in Syria.
Why would Russia wait and give Ukraine time to strengthen?
Because the Kremlin assumed Ukraine would remain politically unstable and divided. It didn’t foresee the shift toward national unity and Western alignment.
By 2022, the frozen conflict thawed, and full-scale war began.
Why Russia and Ukraine Can’t Agree to Peace
Nikola made one thing painfully clear: “The war ends only when one side effectively surrenders.” A negotiated peace, in his view, is almost impossible because:
Ukraine’s goal:
Regain all territory including Crimea.
Russia’s goal:
Force Ukraine to accept Russian control of Crimea and the Donbas.
There is no overlap between these goals. Even a ceasefire, such as Minsk III, would merely pause the war, letting both sides rearm.
Why the U.S., Europe, China, and Russia All Benefit from the War
This was the darkest part of our conversation.
Western media portrays the war as a simple morality play. Good Ukraine. Bad Russia. Freedom vs tyranny. According to Nikola, every major power benefits from the war continuing:
The United States
- Sells weapons to Europe.
- Sells energy to Europe.
- Weakens Russia through attrition.
- Keeps Ukraine dependent.
China
- Buys discounted Russian energy, boosting its economy.
- Keeps Russia dependent on Chinese markets.
Russia
- Keeps its military-industrial complex alive.
- Maintains internal control through wartime nationalism.
Ukraine
- Secures Western aid by remaining a frontline state.
Losers:
Ordinary Ukrainians. Ordinary Russians. Ordinary Europeans.
And soon, possibly Serbia and other countries affected by the new “energy iron curtain.”
Why Media Narratives Are Simplified
Nikola explained that Western media doesn’t tell the full story because:
- Complex conflicts don’t sell.
- Audiences prefer good-guy vs bad-guy narratives.
- Governments and defense industries have incentives to maintain fear.
- Nuance undermines political messaging.
His line that stuck with me:
“It’s not rocket science. But most people don’t want to hear complexity.”
Could Trump End the War?
Nikola was blunt:
- Trump could declare a ceasefire; it would not hold.
- Neither side wants a ceasefire.
- Neither side will surrender.
- Both sides believe survival depends on continuing the war.
Trump could claim a diplomatic victory for domestic politics, but the war would continue beneath the surface.
Is World War III Possible?
Surprisingly, Nikola said:
Yes. But not the way people imagine.
He believes:
- Nuclear weapons may be used - at low yield—tactical nukes, not city-destroyers.
- Strikes would be calibrated to avoid provoking total retaliation.
- Border clashes between Russia and NATO states are increasingly likely within five years.
- The war would remain limited, not apocalyptic.
It’s not “end of the world.”
It’s “managed escalation.”
Which may be more chilling.
Is a Peace Deal Possible?
We explored potential solutions. Energy deals. Sanctions relief. Diplomatic swaps. Economic restructuring.
Nikola’s conclusion:
“I don’t think peace is possible. At best, the war can be frozen. It will restart.” Neither side can achieve its goals. Neither side can accept defeat. Meanwhile global powers benefit from the stalemate.
The War No One Sees: Energy, Sanctions, and Europe’s Hidden Crisis
One of the most revealing moments came when Nikola described the impact of sanctions on Serbia, his home country.
Russia’s Gazprom owns major portions of Serbia’s energy infrastructure. Western sanctions have destabilized markets. EU transit bans are cutting off gas supplies. Serbia may face a harsh winter—not because of conflict, but because of the politics around it. We rarely hear this in the U.S., where coverage focuses on battlefield maps, not global energy realities.
Final Thoughts: A War of Narratives, Not Solutions
What I took away from Nikola’s analysis is that this war is not:
- a sudden crisis,
- a simple fight between good and evil,
- or a conflict driven purely by ideology.
It is:
- a decade-long geopolitical struggle,
- fueled by energy markets,
- shaped by oligarchic power,
- sustained by global military interests,
- simplified by media narratives,
- kept alive because major powers profit from its continuation.
It may freeze. It may thaw. It’s unlikely to end anytime soon. And for those living in Ukraine, Russia, and neighboring countries—the human cost continues every day
Editor’s Note: This article is based on my podcast interview with journalist Nikola Mikovic, recorded and published on October 23, 2025. The ideas discussed here originate from that conversation. The structure, emphasis, and commentary are my own. Any errors or interpretations should be attributed to me, not to Nikola Mikovic.
Listen or watch: Russia’s Endgame: Nikola Mikovic, The Truth About the War in Ukraine
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Contributor: Byline Times, CGTN, Diplomatic Courier, Geopolitics & Empire, Global Comment, Lowy Institute, South China Morning Post, Scoon TV, The Times of Central Asia, The Liberum, World Geostrategic Insights
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